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Last week, after the Fed cut, the mortgage rates went down the next day and then sharply up. Mortgage rates are now higher than they were before the Fed cut last week. So, it would be hard to predict. But, if I am to venture there, I'd say, mortgage rate would probably go down the first day or two, and then up again. I think, long term, mortgage rates will continue increasing. So, it could be a good time to lock in that rate! - Tue Jan 29 2008, 07:58

So, your advice is basically to stay away from this property, right? - Tue Jan 29 2008, 06:17

Thank you, J R! How come nobody was complaining when the media was helping propel the prices up? You live by the media in both good and bad times.

Most people here make it sounds as if the media have an agenda to make the things look worse than they are. A kind of conspiracy theory here! I think many people are giving too much credit to the media. What has happened is that people have assumed so much debt and now they need to service it. Since the home prices are not going up anymore, they can't borrow against their homes. The result is that they stop spending money on anything but the essentials, while putting most of their income to servicing those debts. The media didn't make that happen -- the people did! So, it's a payback time.

I strongly believe that if the home prices were to go 10-20% down, the demand would pick up and the things would start balancing out. Until that happens, the buyers will wait as they don't want to end up with overpriced homes that could potentially lose value in the near future. So, the sooner all of us--the agents, sellers, and buyers--find that equilibrium, the sooner we'll be out of the woods. Just my 2 cents! - Sat Jan 26 2008, 07:09

Ian, can you be more specific as to what misinformation you have in mind? I think the national media won't focus too much attention on local markets. They'll look at national trends instead. However, the local media does talk about local markets, at least here in DC-Baltimore area. - Thu Jan 24 2008, 16:05

Blaming solely the media for the problems we're now in is not entirely fair. Haven't the agents sold many homes in the past few years by telling people how they will be left out if they don't buy now and how buying a home is such a great investment? Maybe you were not one of them. But, some agents should take part of the blame for this. Also, it's not just about housing and the media. There is a growing budget deficit in the United States, fueled by incompetent economic policies of the current administration; then there is China and its impact; decline of the dollar; etc. etc. --- all of which have created this macroeconomic instability. The media are just part of the problem, and probably one of the smaller parts. There is much more going on in the economy than the media.
But I agree with you on one point: buying home is primarily about providing a nice environment for you and your family to grow and share. Looking at buying a home as an investment should only be done by investors, which is a minority of all home buyers. So, both the media AND the agents need to re-emphasize this. - Tue Jan 22 2008, 12:54

I heard similar things about Edgewater. It seems other areas in AA Co. are doing better. I made an offer on a house a few days ago. I offered about 90% of the asking price, and was countered at about 95%. The owner was not willing to go lower than that. The house has been on the market for a very, very long time (if I say how long it would be easy for Mansur and co. to identify the house). I don't know what the owners are thinking. The market won't improve so quickly. - Sat Jan 26 2008, 04:07

Mansur and others:
what trends are you seeing in Anne Arundel County? I keep hearing how things are still well. Yet, I just talked with a realtor and he's told me his company hasn't sold a single home last month. Also, I have several of homes on my shortlist that have seen 10-20% price reduction in the last several months. There's also a number of listings that were withdrawn, most likely due to lack of interest or lack of serious buyers. I moved to the Annapolis area about a year and a half ago. At that time, you could hardly see a single family home below 375k. Now, there are quite a few properties in the 300-350k range. In other words, while we hear how everything is fine and dandy, there are numerous examples one can cite in order to prove that there's been a significant drop in prices in AA County.
Finally, do you see this trend reversing any time soon? I know that nobody has a crystal ball, but you can make an educated guess based on various data. All this makes many of us, the potential buyers, quite wary to enter the market, as we hear and see contradictory data and advices.
Thank you! - Mon Jan 21 2008, 21:31

Deborah and Tom (I hope you don't mind me addressing you on the first name basis), you both said it well. And this is just another reason for realtors to reach out to buyers and sellers and educate them with hard facts and data. Hopefully, with such increased effort, we'll all be able to see through the fog that the media so often creates. - Wed Jan 23 2008, 08:03

Mr. Andrews, I don't have a grudge against Realtors. Actually, the one I'm working with is a wonderful and knowledgeable agent, and I'm sure there are many such realtors all around the country. All I was trying to say is that the economic problems (and real estate is a part of that) are real. They are not created by the media, though the media tend to exaggerate everything.

I think admitting the problem and then adjusting to it in order to create the best situation for both buyers and sellers will help alleviate some of the problems we're now facing. By saying it's all just the media hype doesn't help anyone who's in the market right now. - Wed Jan 23 2008, 07:32

I'll post something I wrote for another thread.

Blaming solely the media for the problems we're now in is not entirely fair. Haven't the agents sold many homes in the past few years by telling people how they will be left out if they don't buy now and how buying a home is such a great investment? Maybe you were not one of them. But, some agents should take part of the blame for this. Also, it's not just about housing and the media. There is a growing budget deficit in the United States, fueled by incompetent economic policies of the current administration; then there is China and its impact; decline of the dollar; rising oil prices, etc. etc. --- all of which have created this macroeconomic instability. The media are just part of the problem, and probably one of the smaller parts. There is much more going on in the economy than the media.

I think you're giving too much credit to the media. Also, it sounds a bit condescending to say that consumers will not be able to discern between national trends and local markets. Any sane person knows that property prices in California are way above property prices in, say, Ohio, and that these two markets would have different dynamics.

And, finally, many agents are writing on this forum as if all this what's going on with the economy is non-existent. There are some real and serious problems with our economy. The media did not invent that. Do they blow it out of proportion? Yes! Do they over-react? Definitely! But the problems ARE real.

I think the best thing the realtors and agents can do in this market is to provide the most accurate information and data on markets they are serving. They need to go out of their way to educate consumers and help them (us) navigate this volatile market.

I agree with you on one point, though: buying home is primarily about providing a nice environment for you and your family to grow and share; investment comes secondary. Looking at buying a home as an investment should only be done by investors, which is a minority of all home buyers. And, very importantly, return on that investment primarily comes as you're paying off your mortgage and increase your equity value; not through some speculative appreciation that cannot be sustained by rational economics. So, both the media AND the agents need to re-emphasize this. - Tue Jan 22 2008, 20:04