wow
that was only about 3 months ago

anyways

good luck

LOL! I guess you guys didn't get your Christmas present after all. On top of that, I bet those who "pulled the trigger" when this Q&A was posted are kicking themselves in the @$$ right now...that is IF they even pulled the trigger.

Fabulous answers Thomas! I agree that NOW is the time to pull the trigger. Things are going to gradually get better in 2008 which will return confidence to builders and resale sellers. In my opinion, if buyers want the best deal possible on a great home the trigger should be pulled now. 2009 will bring less negotiations and happier sellers.

I have to agree with Thomas. The media has a way of delivering gloom and doom out of context.

For example, yes, all of these foreclosures are terrible and a hardship, yes, they are somewhat affecting the market. BUT, what we need to remember and the messag we need to keep delivering is the that problem is primarily rooted in subprime loans. Statistics show that less than 10% of homeowners currently have a subprime loan, and not all of those will go into foreclosure and be foreclosed.

The latest statistics from NAR show that the foreclosure rate is less than 0.6% on subprime loans.

When put into perspective, it takes away some of the freak-out factor.

Sylvia - just wanted to also mention - while the sub-prime mortgage issue has certainly gotten its share of press, the one glaring statistic missing is what percentage of transactions did sub prime mortgages represent compared to all real estate transactions as a whole over the past 2 years. While I know they were hugely popular, they certainly didn't represent a majority of transactions.

Glad to hear that you are seeing movement in your area. While business is not booming here, I continue to get consist showing requests for both existing as well as my new construction. My advice to my buyers - now is the time to pull the trigger.

Glad that you like the question, Thomas. I respect Jim a lot (just getting to know you, Thomas), and I know Jim will also agree with the localism about real estate. It's interesting to see the two different angles. .

I agree with the fact that numbers can be used in different ways to support a theory and the press certainly knows how to take advantage of that!

I was at a discussion a couple of months ago about short sales in Marin, the title company guru mentioned that the paper said foreclosure rate increased 100% in Marin from last year. While the 100% increase painted a gloom and doom picture, the reality was that the number of houses foreclosed in Marin increased from 1-2 per month to 2-3 a month.

Of course, the WSJ article mentioned the top 5 foreclosure cities in the nation - others are more like what Jim said, and not so fortunate.

I also want to mention that I have noticed more houses went into contract (in my area) during the last month and more towards the end of year – My take is that buyers have waited long enough, and some are ready to buy now. Hopefully this, along with the not as choatic lending practice and the administration will infuse some badly needed blood into this whole situation!.

Sylvia

Hi Sylvia, I really like your question. I read a book once in college - How to Lie with Statistics - if anything, it taught me to take the number of percentage increases in foreclosure filings with a grain of salt.

While a 94% INCREASE in foreclosure filings sounds like a tremendous number, it translates into just less than twice as many foreclosures in October, 2007 as was in October 2006. If the foreclosure rate in your market represents 2% of all transactions, a 94% increase in foreclosures translates into just short of 4% of all transactions. While the number is clearly not desirable, it certainly doesn't sound like the market is crashing. Sellers may disagree and buyers may salivate, however, it doesn't translate into mayhem.

I understand that in certain markets, the rate of foreclosure is significant. I don't want to dismiss the issue entirely, however, I believe the media is irresponsibly controlling the message we need to communicate to our buyers and sellers. All real estate markets are local. When prices fall, buyers need to take advantage of the market and sellers need to realign expecations.

Thanks for the question!

I'll give you a ridiculous metaphor. - A hemophiliac gets into an accident. He loses a pint of blood per hour. After about six hours he has lost half his blood, but the doctors have good news for him. "Prince Ivan" they say "good news, your highness, you are now losing only half a pint of blood per hour."